Random Walk in USA!

满地的松鼠可以到处挖洞存粮过冬。是否有人统计过他们每年到底存了多少粮？然后在冰雪覆盖的冬天他们能找到多少他们散落于各处的储粮？不管怎样，我们的印象中似乎难得看见有松鼠被饿死的吧？

 

然而，对于一代人一生的跨度来说，我们从自然继承的是一出生就被上一代人的能力将被认为良种的基因喂到可以再繁衍的程度。这上一代人将一生的积蓄全存贮在下一代的能力上了。不管本金，不管利息，不管depriciation， 年老时的消费支出便是这积蓄的持续支出。一句话，‘养儿防老’。这是人类自有自我以来几千年的存储模式。

 

现代工业文明似乎要打破这样一种天然的自然血缘的模式。从地域、种族等开始，近200多年的变革已经将人类众多天然的关联与继承模式打破。包括地域、种族、血缘、年龄。这样的文明推进与其说是技术的功力，更不如说是制度的胜利！(制度经济学的人要笑翻了。）不得不承认，将这些个关联与天然继承打破，这些要素本身就有了更多的自由度，这些要素的组合于是就是数学复杂度上的指数式的上升。于经济学家而言，这种制度的安排既释放了资源（这些资源由于被关联和继承束缚而被认为是未有效利用或者说是浪费的)，更将这种资源以更高的速度流转着，从而创造了更多的资源和前所未有的数学复杂度，便有了我们现在多么多姿多彩的生活！

 

这样的现代文明的结果，就是让我们自己享受了更多的彼此的资源的同时，让我们更长寿了！头痛的是，这时间轴的延长数学上更增加了不少复杂度！

 

好了，一堆看似无头绪的杂乱，终于可以归一到我们的现在：每一代人或者每一个人面对社会统计上可以预期的寿命中，我们到底该以怎样的组合(portfolio) 去 balance 我们一生的账单？？？

 

假定平均寿命70岁。（仅仅是庸俗的假定）

假定0－18岁的消费是‘免费的’礼物。这个可以对冲掉有人活得70岁以上之后若干年他/她便可以从下一代‘免费’得到他当年抚养这些个王八羔子的回报。（好一个浪漫的假定，以礼物对冲礼物！）（这个假定源于一个西方社会一个有趣的常识：抚养孩子在人的一生当中是最不重要的。）

 

好了，有了假定，我们的时间轴就剩下50年了！

 

按世界经济年增长3％计算吧。现在的1块钱，25年后就只有50％了，50年后就只有25分了。呵呵，这只是数字概念与数学恐吓。（其实总体的现实是全世界的财富还是在增长式的积累。从人口的持续增长就可以推断出来嘛。）

 

问题是，作为个人而言，我们到底存什么？

50年跨度对于我们自己的创造来说，存黄金？存银行，存房产？存基金？或者自己做portfolio？只要是资产，就有风险。只要是存储，就该是在贬值，否则，你就是在诅咒全世界经济在滑坡！这可是反人类的罪过！

 

也就是说，无论我们存什么，只能用于短期的临时的时间轴的延伸。相比50年的跨度，我们个人只能做短期投资者！Ok, 于个人而言，长期投资都是得不尝失的。现代文明社会的结果还是得用现代社会的制度性安排来实现吧。

 

需要宏观的制度性医疗保险，养老保险以保障最基本的生活状态。除此之外的存储，都是个人的风险投资了！这才是现代文明制度安排好了的最大portfolio!

（这种宏观制度安排下人与人各自的博弈与竞争，也许才是人类生活的更精彩之处吧。与人斗，其乐无穷嘛！）

 

其实，这种制度性的安排与松鼠相比是何其的相似！松鼠到处存食物是它的天然特性。漫长的冬天它总可以找到散落各处的食物。至于食物的好坏，那就非它那天然的生物性安排所能决定的了！

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why bad boys get girls
James Bond types who possess a 'dark triad' of characteristics are more likely to have multiple sexual partners, study says
PHILIP JACKMAN

The bad boys get more girls. You always suspected it was true and now a psychological study backs it up.

Research done by Peter Jonason at New Mexico State University says it's all to do with the “dark triad” – a trio of otherwise negative characteristics combining the narcissist's sense of entitlement, the non-clinical psychopath's high impulsivity and thrill-seeking nature, and the manipulative skills of Machiavellianism.

At high levels, they'll make a person a social pariah, but a certain amount of each will result in a highly active sex life, says the study.

“There's a fair bit of evidence that these guys are just more interested in short-term mating,” Mr. Jonason said in a telephone interview from New Mexico on Wednesday. “So I put together a survey that looked at the dark triad and a number of ways of measuring short-term mating orientation.”

He gave 200 surveys to psychology students that ranked them for each element of the dark triad and asked them about their sex lives and attitudes toward sexual relationships. “We found this interesting pattern across the three different measures of the triad,” he said.

He explains that the triad's characteristics were traditionally seen as separate “but what we are saying is that these are three different measures of this socially exploitive personality trait” that accentuates a man's ability to pursue his own selfish needs, hence a tendency toward short-term relationships.

“It's a very James Bond kind of psychology,” he said. “And if I get the opportunity, I'll change the ‘dark triad' to the ‘James Bond complex.' I think that's really more accurate because we're not looking at clinical aspects of the [characteristics], we're looking at how normal people can have these negative traits and be doing great things with their lives. They can be doctors and professors and politicians – and, obviously, spies.”

David Schmitt of Bradley University in Peoria, Ill., found similar links between the dark triad and reproductive success in the preliminary results of a study of men in 57 countries.

“It is universal across cultures for high dark-triad scorers to be more active in short-term mating,” he told New Scientist magazine. “They are more likely to try and poach other people's partners for a brief affair.”

So, why exactly do the bad boys have so many sexual partners?

Mr. Jonason's study, co-authored by Norman Li, Gregory Webster and Prof. Schmitt, says the dark triad may facilitate a social style that exploits others.

For instance, those with high levels of Machiavellianism are exploitive charmers. Narcissists tend to have a desire for power and dominance and are less likely to feel guilt or shame. They're also persistent and dedicated in achieving their goals.

The study adds: “Psychopathy is also associated with an exploitative nature … and low levels of empathy, shame and guilt.”

It concludes: “As such, individuals who score high on the dark-triad traits are not well suited for or interested in maintaining long-term relationships.” And once their qualities are evident to others, they're “viewed as undesirable, and thus, to be avoided by potential long-term partners.”

After all, how likely is James Bond to get married and settle down in a 9-to-5 civil-service job?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

因为生病，这几天一直宅着。刚出去了一会，在黄昏中感受了一下 Christmas eve 的清静。依旧是那些个街，依旧是那些个房子。对于一个南方的小镇来说，似乎看不出有什么异样。

 

不过，这看似 same-o-same-o 的 Christams eve，各家的户外装饰与布景明显很简单，相比往年，更多的家庭甚至根本没有任何这些装饰。这是个实实在在的经济信号，美国的老百姓在 hold cash，在迎接经济冬天的到来。

 

节后的打折会让更狠嘛？即便如此，这节日的消费数据肯定不会好看。

 

 

 

 

这些个‘召妓’俱乐部的性质：

 

1. 这头儿都有一份体面的工作：Bernard L. Madoff 是做到了 Nasdaq 的 chairman。在华尔街混迹算是几十年了。

2. 这会员加入是只有通过会员的介绍才能入会的。

3. 入会门槛高。这些个 hedge fund 最小入会费 100 万美金。这 Madoff 的公司只会多，不会少。

4. 这俱乐部的底细是不可以知道的。唯一让你知道的是，你付了钱，享受专一的服务 （投资回报）。其余的，一旦你想知道，你就得出局。

5. 这‘妓女’就是他们自己手中的投资。经过 Madoff 一番复杂的包装，俨然成了一个永远年轻，充满活力，永远物超所值，回报丰厚的‘高级妓女’。

6. 这‘妓女’呢，本来也是生活优裕，活色天香地活在华尔街这个豪华别墅里，无人打扰。只是，这豪华别墅年久失修，住的人也多，根基也不牢，这回正闹停电（缺乏现金流）。结果，妓女立马见光死。

7. 没了‘妓女’， ‘皮条客’不答应，只好翻 Madoff 的老底了。

 

这俱乐部到底会怎么样？且听 FBI 会怎么说吧。 

 

FBI 给出的最新‘皮条客’名单：

 

Investor	Description	Amount of Exposure	Comment
Fairfield Greenwich Advisors	An investment management firm	$7,500,000,000	More than half of Fairfield Greenwich's $14.1 billion in assets under management, or about $7.5 billion was connected to Madoff.
Tremont Group Holdings	Hedge-fund group	$3,300,000,000	The investment firm is owned by OppenheimerFunds and Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co. Tremont's Rye Investment Management business had $3.1 billion invested, and its fund of funds group invested another $200 million.
Banco Santander	Spanish bank	$2,870,000,000	In euros, the figure is 2.33 billion.Of that, 2.01 billion euros belongs to institutional investors, Optimal Strategic hedge fund investors (international private banking customers); 320 mllion euros belongs to other private banking customers.
Bank Medici	Austrian bank	$2,100,000,000	The bank had two funds with $2.1 billion (1.5 billion euros) invested with Madoff. Bank Medici is 25% owned by Unicredit SpA and 75% owned by chairwoman Sonja Kohn.
Ascot Partners	A hedge fund founded by billionaire investor, philanthropist and GMAC chief J. Ezra Merkin	$1,800,000,000	The hedge fund had $1.8 billion under management as of Sept. 30, had substantially all of its assets invested with Mr. Madoff.
Access International Advisors	A New York-based investment firm	$1,400,000,000	N/A
Fortis	Dutch bank	$1,350,000,000	Fortis Bank and its subsidiaries have no direct exposure to Bernard Madoff Investment Securities LLC, but parts of the group do have a risk exposure to certain funds it provides collateralised lending to. If, as a result of the alleged fraud, the value of the assets of these funds is nil and the respective clients cannot meet their obligations, Fortis Bank Nederland (Holding) N.V.'s loss could amount to around EUR 850 million to EUR 1 billion. The continuity of Fortis Bank Nederland (Holding) N.V.and its subsidiaries is not at stake in any way.
Union Bancaire Privee	Swiss bank	$1,000,000,000	The bank's exposure to Madoff -- less than 1.26 billion Swiss francs -- is less than 1% of overall bank assets.
HSBC	British bank	$1,000,000,000	HSBC provided financing to a small number of institutional clients who invested in funds with Madoff; some clients in its global custody business have invested with Madoff, but the company doesn't believe these arrangements should be a source of exposure to the group.
Natixis SA	A French investment bank	$554,400,000	The company says it didn't make direct investment in Madoff-managed funds; some investments made on behalf of customers could have ended up being managed by Madoff. Exposure is about 450 million euros.
Carl Shapiro	The founder and former chairman of apparel company Kay Windsor Inc., and his wife	$545,000,000	Mr. Shapiro, a 95-year-old apparel entrepreneur and investor, had $545 million with Mr. Madoff, creating what could become the largest personal loss yet in the scandal. A spokeswoman for the family confirmed that Mr. Shapiro's charitable foundation, the Carl and Ruth Shapiro Family Foundation, invested $145 million with Mr. Madoff. Mr. Shapiro and his family had an additional $400 million or more invested with Mr. Madoff. Mr. Shapiro, a widely respected philanthropist, was one of Mr. Madoff's earliest and largest investors.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC	British bank	$599,000,000	The bank had exposure of about 400 million pounds to Madoff through trading, collateralized lending.
BNP Paribas	French bank	$431,170,000	The company said it has no investment of its own in Madoff-managed hedge fund but it does have risk exposure (up to 350 million euros) through its trading business and collateralized lending to funds of hedge funds.
BBVA	Spanish bank	$369,570,000	The company reiterated it doesn't have direct exposure to Madoff but would face losses of 300 million euros if Madoff funds were found not to exist.
Man Group PLC	A U.K. hedge fund	$360,000,000	Invested in funds directly/indirectly sub-advised by Madoff Securities
Reichmuth & Co.	A Swiss private bank	$327,000,000	The Lucerne-based private bank warned investors that around 385 million Swiss francs, or 3.5% of its assets under management, were affected.
Nomura Holdings	Japanese brokerage firm	$304,000,000	The 27.5 billion yen exposure is through Fairfield Sentry; That amount represents 0.2% of assets under management.
Maxam Capital Management	A fund of funds based in Darien, Connecticut	$280,000,000	The fund reported a combined loss of $280 million on funds they had invested.
EIM SA	A European investment manager with about $11 billion in assets	$230,000,000	The European investment manager with about $11 billion in assets. Overall, EIM assets at risk are less than 2% of what it manages.
AXA SA	French insurance giant	$123,200,000	Exposure is well below 100 million euros.
Credit Industrial et Commercial SA	French bank	$111,000,000	The bank has no direct exposure to Madoff but could be affected through an intermediary.
UniCredit SpA	Italian Bank	$92,390,000	The company's total exposure is about 75 million euros. Dublin-based Pioneer Alternative Investments is indirectly exposed to Madoff via feeders; Italian clients have zero exposure.
Hadassah	The Women's Zionist Organization of America	$90,000,000	Hadassah had approximately $90 million invested with Mr. Madoff.
Nordea Bank AB	Swedish Bank	$59,130,000	The amount of exposure is about 48 million euros.
Hyposwiss	A Swiss private bank owned by St. Galler Kantonalbank	$50,000,000	Hyposwiss said roughly 0.1% of its overall assets was invested in Madoff products through managed accounts. Another $100 million is exposed through clients who chose to invest in Madoff funds. St. Galler Kantonalbank said its financial situation and liquidity aren't hurt by Hyposwiss' exposure.
Banque Benedict Hentsch & Cie. SA	A Swiss-based private bank	$48,800,000	Banque Benedict Hentsch said its clients have 56 million Swiss francs at risk. Benedict Hentsch had also recently agreed to merge with Fairfield Greenwich Group, a major Madoff distributor. When the news of Mr. Madoff's arrest broke, it scrambled to undo that deal.
Fairfield, Conn.	town pension fund	$42,000,000	The town's employees board and police and fire board, which cover 971 workers, had $41.9 million invested with Madoff, said Paul Hiller, Fairfield's chief fiscal officer.
Bramdean Alternatives	An asset manager	$31,200,000	The exposure is about 9.5% of assets.
Tufts University	University	$20,000,000	The university's Investment Committee authorized an investment with Ascot Partners, which in turn invested the entire sum with Madoff Securities. Tufts has written off the value of this investment, which totaled $20 million, or slightly less than 2 percent of our endowment.
Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles	The largest manager of charitable gift assets for Los Angeles Jewish philanthropists	$18,000,000	The amount invested with Madoff represented less than 5% of the Foundation's assets.
Harel Insurance Investments & Financial Services Ltd.	Israel-based insurance firm	$14,200,000	N/A
Baloise Holding AG	Swiss insurer	$13,000,000	N/A
Societe Generale	French Bank	$12,320,000	The company says its exposure, which is less than 10 million euros, is "negligible."
Groupama SA	French insurer	$12,320,000	Exposure is around 10 million euros.
Credit Agricole SA	French bank	$12,320,000	Exposure is less than 10 million euros.
KAS BANK	European financial company	$11,000,000	KAS BANK has exposure through one of its clients. A material write-down of these investments could result in an unsecured claim. The extent of the potential loss cannot yet be established precisely, but will not exceed 9 million euro net.
Richard Spring	individual investor	$11,000,000	A Boca Raton resident and former securities analyst, says he had about 95% of his net worth invested with Mr. Madoff. Mr. Spring said he was also one of the unofficial agents who connected Mr. Madoff with dozens of investors, from a teacher who put in $50,000 to entrepreneurs and executives who would put in millions.
RAB Capital	hedge fund	$10,000,000	N/A
Banco Popolare	Italian bank	$9,860,000	The company says it had indirect exposure of up to 8 million euros; maximum lost on funds distributed to institutional, private clients is about 60 million euros.
Korea Teachers Pension	A 10 trillion won Korean pension fund	$9,100,000	N/A
Swiss Life Holding	Swiss insurer	$78,900,000	Swiss Life said it has indirectly invested assets worth around 90 million Swiss francs through funds of funds managed by Madoff Investment Securities.
Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Co.	Japanese insurance and financial group	$9,000,000	Mitsui Sumitomo didn't invest directly in the Madoff fund.
Ramaz School	A Jewish school in New York	$6,000,000	N/A
North Shore-Long Island Jewish Health System	health system	$5,700,000	Exposure represents less than 1% of the health system's investment portfolio. A donor agreed to reimburse the system for any losses.
Neue Privat Bank	Swiss bank	$5,000,000	The bank invested in a certificate based on a hedge fund with exposure to Madoff
Burt Ross	A former New Jersey mayor	$5,000,000	Mr. Ross believes he has lost about $5 million, the bulk of his net worth, investing with Madoff.
International Olympic Committee	The organizer of the Olympic Games	$4,800,000	The IOC's exposure represents about 1% of its total investment portfolio. Organizing committee confirmed they will be able to meet their obligations.
Clal Insurance Enterprise Holdings	An Israel-based financial services company	$3,100,000	N/A
Ira Roth	individual investor	$1,000,000	Mr. Roth, a New Jersey resident, says his family has about $1 million invested through Mr. Madoff's firm.
Mediobanca SpA	via its subsidiary Compagnie Monegasque de Banque.	$671,000	Limited to $671,000 via its Compagnie Monegasque de Banque. via its subsidiary Compagnie Monegasque de Banque.
Fred Wilpon	owner of New York Mets	N/A	N/A
Steven Spielberg	The Spielberg charity -- the Wunderkinder Foundation	N/A	N/A
JEHT Foundation	A New York foundation focused on electoral and criminal justice reform	N/A	The foundation, which stands for Justice, Equality, Human dignity and Tolerance, will close its doors at the end of January 2009. Donors Jeanne Levy-Church and Kenneth Levy-Church had all their funds managed through Madoff.
Mortimer B. Zuckerman Charitable Remainder Trust	The charitable trust of real-estate magnate, who owns the Daily News and U.S. News & World Report	N/A	Funds exposed represented 11% of the value of that charitable trust.
Robert I. Lappin Charitable Foundation	A Massachusetts-based Jewish charity	N/A	The group, which financed trips for Jewish youth to Israel, was forced to close on Friday because the money that supported its programs was invested with Madoff.
Chais Family Foundation	A charity that gives away about $12.5 million annually to Jewish causes	N/A	The California-based charity group invested entirely with Madoff, and was forced to shut down operations on Sunday after years of donating some $12.5 million annually to Jewish causes in Israel and Eastern Europe.
KBC Group NV	Belgian banking and insurance group	N/A	No direct exposure; some indirect exposure through collateralized loans, but the exposure is very limited and immaterial to KBC's earnings. KBC has also made some loan advances to institutional customers who have invested in funds managed by Madoff Investment Securities, but this shouldn't have any material impact either, the company said.
Credit Suisse	Swiss bank	N/A	The company says it has "no material direct exposure." It is reviewing if any client funds were affected.
Barclays PLC	British bank	N/A	The bank says it has "minimal" exposure" and is "fully collateralized"
Dexia	French bank	N/A	No direct investments in funds managed by Madoff,; private banking clients have total exposure of EUR78 million to funds primarily invested in Madoff funds. Indirectly, Dexia is exposed through partially collateralized lending operations to funds exposed to Madoff funds for a gross amount of EUR164 million. If the assets managed by Madoff Investment Securities were nil, the above mentioned lending operations could trigger an after tax loss of about EUR85 million for Dexia.
Allianz Global Investors	The asset management unit of German insurer Allianz SE	N/A	The unit says exposure "is not significant."
Banco Espanol de Credito SA (Banesto)	A Spanish bank contolled by Banco Santander	N/A	Its clients have a total 2 million euros exposure
CNP Assurances	French insurer	N/A	No direct exposure. Indirect exposure of 3 million euros via a fund of funds
UBS AG	Swiss bank	N/A	The bank says is has "no material exposure."
Yeshiva University	A New York-based private university	$110,000,000	Although the university had "no direct investments" in Madoff's firm, a portion of its endowment had been invested for 15 years with Ascot Partners, which had "substantially all its assets invested with Madoff." Yeshiva's investment represents about 8% of its endowment. J. Ezra Merkin had been a University trustee but has resigned in the wake of the scandal.
The Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity	The charitable foundation of Nobel laureate	N/A	N/A
Leonard Feinstein	The co-founder of retailer Bed Bath & Beyond	N/A	N/A
Sen. Frank Lautenberg	The charitable foundation of the New Jersey Senator's family	N/A	N/A
Norman Braman	former owner of Philadelphia Eagles	N/A	N/A
Jeffrey Katzenberg	The chief executive of DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc.	N/A	Mr. Katzenberg's financial affairs along with those of Mr. Spielberg were managed by Mr. Breslauer, Mr. Katzenberg has suffered millions in Madoff-connected losses, say people familiar with the matter.
Gerald Breslauer	The Hollywood financial advisor to Steven Spielberg and Jeffrey Katzenberg	N/A	Along Messrs Katzenberg and Spielberg, Mr. Breslauer himself has likely sustained heavy losses in the Madoff affair. He customarily invests alongside his clients, say these people, and has sometimes been a larger investor than the people he represented
Kingate Management	hedge fund	N/A	Kingate's $2.8 billion hedge fund Kiingate Global Fund reportedly invested heavily with Madoff
Julian J. Levitt Foundation	Texas-based charity	N/A	N/A
Loeb family	N/A	N/A	N/A
Lawrence Velvel	individual investor	N/A	Mr. Velvel is dean of the Massachusetts School of Law
Fix Asset Management.	hedge fund	N/A	reportedly invested heavily in Madoff's portfolios
EFG International AG	Swiss private banking and asset management group	N/A	EFG clients have $130 million invested in Madoff through third-party funds sold by EFG. In addition, 0.3% of the bank's total invested assets, held in custody, are invested in Madoff.
Support Organization for the Madison Cultural Arts District	Non-profit	N/A	The group had $18 million invested with Fairfield Greenwich until September. A spokesman for the Overture Center in Madison, Wis., built with SOMCAD funds, said, "Speculation that SOMCAD could be on the hook is not outlandish."
Royal Dutch Shell pension fund	Pension fund	N/A	The pension fund has an indirect investment that may be affected. The fund originally invested $45 million. The alleged fraud won't affect the financial position and funding status of the fund.
Fire and Police Pension Association Of Colorado	Pension Fund	N/A	It had $60 million invested with Fairfield Greenwich until six months ago. The pension fund has $2.5 billion under management
Genevalor, Benbassat & Cie.	money manager in Geneva	N/A	Members of the Benbassat family, which run the firm, have long known Mr. Madoff. In a statement on its Web site, Genevalor said it "has been reviewing the potential damages caused to its clients" by the alleged Madoff fraud. A statement from the Thema fund said it had assets with Madoff that were now frozen, but did not elaborate.
Banco Espirito Santo	Portugese bank	$21,400,000	The amount represents about 0.1% of assets under management.
Great Eastern Holiding	Singapore insurer	$64,000,000	Great Eastern said $7.7 million of its exposure is invested from its Life Fund. Great Eastern is 87% owned ny Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.
M&B Capital Advisers	Spanish brokerage	$52,800,000	The firm is run by the son and son-in-law of the chairman of Banco Santander. Through M&B, private and institutional investors bought more than $214 million in Madoff's funds.
Royal Dutch Shell pension fund	Global energy and petrochemical company	N/A	The pension fund fund has an indirect investment that may be affected. The fund originally invested $45 million. The alleged fraud won't affect the financial position and funding status of the fund.
Phoenix Holdings	Israeli financial services company	$12,600,000	Phoenix's insurance unit invested $15 million over the last three years in funds managed by Thema, which made investments through Madoff. In November, the company requested to redeem $10 million. The payment was due Dec. 12 but Phoenix hasn't received it.
Credicorp	Peruvian financial services company	$4,500,000	Credicorp's Atlantic Security Bank unit has $1 million in direct exposure and up to $3.5 million in potential contingencies "related to transactions secured by these investments."
Fukoku Mutual Life Co.	Japanese insurer	N/A	The company said it holds similar investments trusts to those held by Sumitomo Life Insurance Co. but declined to specify the balance. Sumitomo disclosed that it has about 2 billion yen, or about $1.8 billion, exposed via trusts.
New York Law School	law school in New York City	$300,000	The school invested the money through its endowment entity. The school filed an investor lawsuit against J. Ezra Merkin, Ascot Partners and BDO Seidman.
Nipponkoa Insurance	Japanese insurer	N/A	he company said it holds similar investments trusts to those held by Sumitomo Life Insurance Co. but declined to specify the balance. Sumitomo disclosed that it has about Y2 billion exposed via trusts.
Sumitomo Life Insurance Co.	Japanese insurer	$22,000,000	Sumitomo Life didn't invest directly in the Madoff fund but part of its investment trust holdings were linked to it.
Swiss Reinsurance Co.	Swiss insurer	$300,000	Exposure is through hedge fund investments; no direct exposure.
Aozora Bank Ltd	Japanese lender	$137,000,000	Aozora entrusted 12.4 billion yen to investment funds, which invested with Madoff. Cerberus Capital Management LP owns a majority stake in Aozora.
UBI Banca	Italian bank	$86,000,000	The bank said the exposure is linked to proprietary investments. UBI Pramerica and Capitalgest Alternative Investments, the assets-under-management units, have no exposure.
Taiyo Life Insurance Co.	Japanese insurer	$17,900,000	Taiyo Life didn't invest directly in the Madoff fund.
United Association Plumbers & Steamfitters Local 267 in Syracuse	Local union pension and health care funds	N/A	Trustees of the funds are trying to determine how much the union lost. The investments go back 15 years.
Richard Sonking	A 59-year-old retired small-business owner	N/A	He first started investing with Mr. Madoff in 1994, scraping together $100,000 for the initial investment. Over the years, he put additional investments into the account, including some of the proceeds from selling his business in 1995
Philoctetes Center for the Multidisciplinary Study of the Imagination	A center that explores the interaction between the mind and the brain and is funded almost entirely by the Betty & Norman F. Levy Foundation	N/A	The foundation invested heavily with Madoff. Now the Philoctetes Center's entire budget-over $1 million-is in peril.
Loretta Weinberg	A New Jersey state senator	N/A	Ms. Weinberg's family had investments with Stanley Chais, a Los Angeles money manager, who nvested her money in Mr. Madoff's entities.

技术，制度，文化

 

神即道， 道发自然， 如来

 

强势文化，弱势文化

 

 

三大公司现在的基本状况都是销售不佳，现金流陷入枯竭。

 

三大汽车公司各自基本都有一个相应的 financial arm， 这些个 arm 提供车贷，保险等等一系列汽车金融服务。这些公司与先前的Fannie Mae 和 Freddie Mac 无异，早已深陷金融危机泥潭。

 

销售能力因为前段时间油价上涨而持续下滑得厉害，被日本车、韩国车着实肥了一把。现在即使油价很低，但美国经济这么差，世界经济这么差。每个人都在hold住现金，该有多少人会去贷款买车？因为伊拉克战争消耗太大，军方的购车（悍马等）应该会继续压缩，这肥肉也自然是越来越瘦了。因此，可以预计的是，销售上这些美国汽车公司难有大作为。

 

既然销售难有作为，作为公司运作，自然是消减成本了。问题是现有的工资体系以及 Detroit 的工会、劳工组织就足以让这些公司寸步难行！

 

卖公司？抛售部分资产瘦身？咳，这年头，世界经济状况不佳，有几个愿意去接收这些个 junk 了的高风险资产？

 

怎么办?

 

其实作为如此大的公司，解决现金流问题其他的都可以逐步缓解或者解决。问题是，如今金融危机下，这些个大公司相应的 financial arm 已经让他们苦不堪言。在被评为 junk 的信用下，从公开市场上要找到注资是够呛的了，尤其是现在人人处处在 hold 住现金。

 

毫无选择，这些个 CEO 们才会厚着脸皮走进国会山。并以推高 unemployment 为威胁要挟着国会山的政客们，提醒着美国民众，告诉这些可怜的纳税人，你们必须给我钱，否则我就得跳楼自杀了！无论是走 chapter 7 or 11，在这金融危机当中，几乎无异。

 

 

 

本周三大汽车公司的 CEO 们在国会山被政客们grill得够呛，最后都空手而归。

 

S&P 早已经把三大汽车公司评级为 junk 。

 

金融危机以及经济衰退继续着。

 

1. Obama，救吧？各个公司都从财政部拿到足够低利率贷款以充实现金流。然后呢？继续亏？继续救？问题的关键是何时是头？恐怕无人能知！这种可能性恐怕最小。

 

2. 让其中一家走 chapter 11 or 7, 这样被另两家接管，同时将三家的 financial arm 甩给政府接管，形成汽车版的 Fannie Mae 和 Freddie Mac。这样一晃就得有几年的缓冲，以期待经济恢复。这是RandomWalk.Li 版本。

 

3. 让境外注资。日本的？韩国的？中国的？日本可能性最大。

 

4. 立即大规模 outsourcing 到中国，到亚洲，关闭本土工厂？这无法解燃眉之急。即使可以，这种工业转移可不是那么轻易的，尤其是汽车这样的重工业。

 

 

 

 

作为资金密集型的产业，汽车工业在20世纪是在美国有效的金融支持下才得以有效拓展的。技术，人力在资本的整合下让美国本土的汽车市场充分发展。某种程度上构成了美国20世纪至少是到80年代的社会基本经济增长因素。

 

然而，80年代后，全球化推生的金融业在全球范围的普及，让本土的企业在这方面的优势已不再明显。无论他们技术有多坏 (你要在加油站碰到一个开日本车的中年美国男人，你问问他为什么买日本车，他多半会告诉你日本车技术好，耗油低），无论他们人力成本有多高（据说这三大汽车公司的工人的平均工资是相应的在美国的日本公司的工人工资的1.5倍以上），他们依然继续活得滋润。为什么？他们享受了IT、电子、房产等其他产业带动的持续经济增长下本土巨大的早已培育成熟的汽车市场垄断！现在，这些个公司无论在技术，在人力以及资本等整合因素都不比别人强的情况下，有何理由只靠那由政治带来的市场垄断而生存？

 

这匹比马大的骆驼，当碰上这看不到复苏前景的经济 recession 时，恐怕还真会被饿死，瘦死。只是我们还不知道这些个庞然大物何时倒下！然后会怎么被分尸！

Wal-Mart 换 CEO。MarketWatch.com 以此标题说是 surprise move。其实，在我看来，一点也不 surprise。

 

先看看这 Michael T. Duke 的背景吧。Duke 一直做着新兴国际市场（如 China, Brazil 等）的开拓的。Wal-Mart 在这样一个时候的所谓一个 'surprise' 的 promotion move， 是基于3－5年内整个全球市场的前景预期而考虑的。

 

美国本土市场 Wal-Mart 本来就已经招了不少工会、地方中小企业等等的众多麻烦（我所在的小镇那Wal-Mart 被讨论来议论去都几年过去了到现在也没建成。）。民主党 Ombama 上台，劳工/工会等等会更加抬头，Wal-Mart 要想在本土有 big move，想有更好的利润增长点恐怕会难上加难。更何况，这金融危机下的本土经济不良环境下的扩张不会是合适的 bussiness plan。可以说3－5年内， Wal-Mart 是无法在本土有施展拳脚的地方了。

 

再看看 Wal-Mart 前几年在发达国家的拓展吧，在德国、日本，甚至是韩国等等都水土不服败下阵来。欧洲有比美国本土麻烦100倍的劳工工会以及福利等大麻烦。日本的无论是文化还是保守经济本身的排斥都让 Wal-Mart 在这些地方有力没地使，连死了都不知道怎么死的。更何况，在美国金融危机的刺激下，这些个地方的经济也是要继续半死不活的。

 

所以说，在这些个市场不好的整体经济环境下开拓市场与寻找利润点，一个普通销售员都会知道这不是明智的。

 

Wal-Maart 在过去3－5年有明显提升的是在新兴市场的市场铺展。Brazil 等等其他地方我不知道， 也懒得 google 了，就我老家所在的那内地城市中心的广场能在5年前一夜间竖起一个新的 Wal-Mart，而且天天人满为患。这足以让 Wal-Mart 的 investors 们眼睛发亮！而且很显然，现在美国的金融危机导致的现在全球性 recession 的结局，就只剩下新兴市场这最后一块可能的蛋糕了。

 

过去的３－５年，Wal-Mart 在新兴市场该是斩获颇丰。这当然提升 Michael T. Duke 所管辖的业绩。对个人而言这 Duke 自然在 Wal-Mart 是红人了。然而，趋利的 Wal-Mart 资本寻找的新 CEO 该是可以带领这个企业在未来 3－5年内可以有稳定利润增长的人。基于 Duke 过去的业绩，基于全球大经济环境下今后 3－5 年内最有拓展空间的新兴市场，选择 Michael T. Duke 作为新的 CEO 可谓水到渠成。

 

如果全球范围内选择未来3－5年，甚至是10年的投资点的话，我想我会跟着 Wal-Mart 走。

 

又：刚听新闻说换下现任的 CEO 跟政治有关。似乎现任 CEO 在 Obama 选举过程中的政治表现不如意？

年初就有人告诉我等着道琼斯跌破8000点吧。今天终于实现了。而且是在8000点之上震荡了好长一阵之后终于扛不住往下跳。Paulson 可谓继 Benake 之后，提前退休吧。